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Disappointing performance at the Kearl oil sand project and potential challenges in the Alberta diesel market prompted a downgrade of Imperial Oil Ltd.CIBC World Markets analyst Arthur Grayfer cut his rating on the Canadian energy producer to neutral from outperform, and lowered his price target to $45 from $50.we are late in our rating downgrade for Imperial given a string of quarterly consensus misses, but a lack of visibility for near term material improvement at Kearl diminishes the visibility for relative outperformance, and poses a risk to the company valuation, Grayfer told clients.He noted that Imperial trades at an estimate 10.6x 2018 strip EV/DACF, versus roughly 8.2x for its large cap peers.valuation has an inherent level of us in it, and we worry that the weaker than expected performance at Kearl and poor communication around Cold Lake performance could tarnish the premium, the analyst said.He also highlighted the potential pressure on margins in Imperial Alberta downstream business, as the Redwater refinery (north of Edmonton) could negatively impact cash flow.Despite the possibility of a large share buyback from Imperial (likely starting later in 2017), lower expectations from Kearl and the Cold Lake heavy oil project suggests Imperial all in adjusted growth won up to its peers. Anticipates that the company debt adjusted per share growth will be approximately eight per cent between 2017 and 2019, compared to the group average of about 10 per cent. However, Imperial also has a lower yield than some of its peers.such, while we are downgrading the stock in advance of a potentially substantial buyback program, we feel less confident that the buyback will be enough to drive outperformance relative to its peers, the analyst said..

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